According to a climatologist at the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), this summer’s heat is poised to rival the extremes of 2023.
Dr Cedric Van Meerbeeck says 2024 is shaping up to be a year of climate extremes for the Caribbean region—hotter and drier weather, more severe hurricanes, extreme rainfall, and tropical cyclones are predicted.
Speaking to Loop News on Wednesday, March 20, at the Regional Workshop on National Frameworks for Climate Services held at Accra Beach Hotel, Dr Van Meerbeeck shared that these extreme patterns are stimulated by a fading El Nino event in the Pacific, continued near-record warm Atlantic Ocean temperatures, and frequent Saharan dust plumes.
“Just as we had extreme heat last year, it is shaping up to be a hot year again. What is driving this? The heat comes from the oceans. The North Atlantic right now is record warm, and it has been like that since summer last year, and it is expected to still be like that in the coming months. Therefore, we are poised to see more heatwaves. We are poised to see a return to this hot, sticky weather a little bit earlier than we normally would and, in essence, quite similar to what we had last year,” he remarked.
In its monthly climate outlook, the Barbados Meteorological Services (BMS) reported that there will be a transition into the heat season in April. Noting that temperatures will start to become uncomfortable during the day and night, coupled with the risk of heat-related illnesses, Dr Van Meerbeeck is advising persons to take caution.
He is calling for caregivers to keep children indoors during peak hours.
“Please make sure that they do not play in the hot sun, midday sun outdoors or any other sports activity as much as possible or shift it to the earlier morning or early evening hours,” he urged.
The climatologist warned that the return of La Nina, together with warm Atlantic Ocean temperatures, could increase potential flooding and intensify the hurricane season.
“Last year, the hurricane season was quite an active one. It was the fourth most active one in recent decades. We might actually see something similar this, and it might get a little bit worse. Whereas last year, we were spared the major impacts of most storms because many of the storms in the Caribbean occurred in the Atlantic, and they never really hit the islands much. This year, we have to see how it will pan out.”
“The potential scenarios for 2024 range from extremely hot and wet to record hot, but initially drier conditions, each posing unique challenges to key climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture and food security, water and health,” Dr Van Meerbeeck emphasised.
The CIMH climatologist’s final message for the Caribbean community is prepare for the worst.
“It is going to be hot, with a chance of flooding and a chance of a heavy and intense hurricane season, so let’s prepare for all of these things.”
