Pakistan air strikes in Afghanistan spark Taliban warning of retaliation 

Islamabad, Pakistan – The Pakistani military conducted air strikes in neighbouring Afghanistan late on Tuesday night, targeting hideouts of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) armed group in Paktika province, according to security officials.

While no official statement was issued by Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs or military media wing, the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), sources confirmed to Al Jazeera that the strikes occurred in the Barmal district of Afghanistan, near Pakistan’s South Waziristan tribal district in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.

The interim Afghan government, ruled by the Afghan Taliban, also confirmed the attacks but insisted that civilians had been targeted. The Afghan Ministry of Defense stated that several refugees, including women and children, were killed or injured.

“The Pakistani side should understand that such arbitrary measures are not a solution to any problem,” Enayatullah Khowarazami, spokesperson for Afghanistan’s defence ministry, wrote on social media platform X. “The Islamic Emirate will not leave this cowardly act unanswered and considers the defense of its territory an inalienable right,” he added.

The air strikes, the second such incident this year, came just hours after Pakistan’s Special Representative for Afghanistan Mohammad Sadi, met the interim Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi in Kabul.

“Met Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi today. Held wide-ranging discussions. Agreed to work together to further strengthen bilateral cooperation and promote peace and progress in the region,” Sadiq posted on X.

Sadiq’s visit to Kabul, which also included a meeting with Afghan interim interior minister Sirajuddin Haqqani on Monday, took place amid deteriorating relations between the two neighbours, and ties are only likely to sink further following the Tuesday night strikes, say analysts.

Increasing attacks

Pakistan has repeatedly accused the Afghan government of harbouring armed groups, especially the TTP, which it claims carries out cross-border attacks targeting Pakistani security forces.

Last week, TTP fighters claimed responsibility for killing at least 16 Pakistani soldiers in South Waziristan in one of the deadliest recent attacks on security personnel.

While the Afghan Taliban deny providing refuge to armed groups or allowing their territory to be used for cross-border attacks, Pakistan asserts that the TTP conducts its operations from Afghan sanctuaries.

During a United Nations Security Council briefing last week, Pakistan said that thousands of TTP fighters have sought shelter in Afghanistan.

“The TTP, with 6,000 fighters, is the largest listed terrorist organisation operating in Afghanistan. With safe havens close to our border, it poses a direct and daily threat to Pakistan’s security,” Pakistani diplomat Usman Iqbal Jadoon said at the UN briefing.

Data indicates a rise in attacks and fatalities, particularly in Pakistan’s restive northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province and southwestern Balochistan province, both of which border Afghanistan.

According to Pakistan’s Interior Ministry, more than 1,500 violent incidents in the first 10 months of this year have resulted in at least 924 deaths. Among the casualties were at least 570 law enforcement personnel and 351 civilians.

The Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS), an Islamabad-based research organisation, reported more than 856 attacks so far in 2024, surpassing the 645 incidents recorded in 2023.

Risk of retaliation

Pakistan maintains that it has repeatedly shared evidence with the Afghan Taliban regarding TTP operations but claims these concerns have not been adequately addressed.

The Pakistani government launched a military campaign, Azm-e-Istehkam (“Resolve for Stability”), in June, and security analyst Amir Rana believes that the current air strikes are likely part of this operation.

“Discussions within military circles have focused on conducting offensives on Afghan soil after the recent surge in attacks against security personnel. These strikes appear to be triggered by last week’s attacks on soldiers,” Rana told Al Jazeera.

Rana, who is also the director of Islamabad-based security think tank Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS), further says that the Kabul visit by Sadiq, Pakistani special representative to Afghanistan, might not be connected to the Tuesday air strikes.

“Sadiq’s visit was more about conveying the government message to share its apprehensions about increasing attacks by TTP networks which operate from Afghanistan, and was likely a trust-building exercise,” he added.

Ihsanullah Tipu, an Islamabad-based security analyst, said that Pakistan has conducted at least four air strikes on TTP hideouts in Afghanistan over the past few years, including one in March.

However, Tipu added that a major flaw in Pakistan’s Afghanistan policy was its “inconsistent approach”.

“Historically, Pakistan’s approach has been personality-driven rather than strategy-driven. Actions such as cross-border air strikes should be part of a comprehensive and well-planned policy instead of reactive measures,” Tipu, who is also the co-founder of The Khorasan Diary, a security research portal, told Al Jazeera.

Tipu also suggested that while the Afghan government has promised retaliation, the real response may come from the TTP.

“The actual reaction may come from the Pakistani Taliban, who have been discussing revenge attacks in their internal communications already, alleging that the strikes killed their women and children,” the Islamabad-based Tipu said.

Rana from PIPS said that such cross-border attacks are becoming a norm globally, and said it was unlikely that Pakistan would face any criticism or consequences from the international community for the air strikes.

“But this also presents a big challenge to us, and a matter to introspect, that despite four decades of engagement in Afghanistan, we still have not developed diplomatic skills to hold dialogue with rulers in Afghanistan, whoever it might be, in a constructive manner,” Rana said.

Tipu, meanwhile, emphasised that the TTP issue remained a major obstacle to Pakistani-Afghan relations.

“With Sadiq’s reappointment as special envoy, there were hopes for détente between the two countries. However, Tuesday’s strikes may significantly hinder any progress before it formally begins,” he said.