How China and Russia could hobble Trump’s plans to isolate Iran 

United States President Donald Trump has threatened to financially punish any country providing an economic “lifeline” to Iran, as he declared an “economic D-Day” against Tehran.

The threat, six months into the US’s costly conflict with Iran, is Trump’s latest attempt to wield US economic power to achieve his foreign policy objectives, after a series of damaging trade wars earlier in his second term in office.

But Trump’s leverage over China and Russia, two important trade partners with Iran, is limited, analysts say. Russia is already under sweeping US sanctions and operates largely outside the US-led economic framework. China, meanwhile, has repeatedly shown it is willing to ignore US sanctions when doing so serves its own economic interests.

Paul Musgrave, an associate professor of government at Georgetown University in Qatar, told Al Jazeera that “it is going to be very difficult” for Trump to pull off his pressure campaign effectively.

“Trump is trying to unilaterally assert the kind of coordinated sanctions that traditionally has taken multilateral coordination, and that means getting on board China, Russia, the P5 of the UN Security Council,” Musgrave said, referring to the five permanent members of the UNSC.

‘Tremendous economic consequences’

In a post on his Truth Social platform on Tuesday, the US president said his campaign against Iran would be “the most crushing economic operation ever taken against any country”.

In addition, he said there would be “tremendous economic consequences” for countries that help Iran subvert US sanctions, citing methods such as “oil smuggling, swap lines, cash transfers, exchange houses, ship registries [and] front companies”.

“It all needs to stop NOW,” Trump wrote.

Earlier the same day, the United Arab Emirates, which Iran has long relied on for critical imports and access to commercial markets, announced an indefinite trade embargo on Tehran, after accusing Iran’s military of launching two ballistic missiles at its territory.

Nader Habibi, a Middle East economics professor at Brandeis University, said he believed the US “strongly encouraged or induced” the UAE to impose the trade embargo, and that the US may also seek to pressure other Iranian trade partners, including its biggest one, China.

‘Temporary truce’

Any US plan to disrupt China-Iran trade is likely to face significant hurdles.

While China bought 80 percent of Iran’s shipped oil in 2025, according to data from analytics firm Kpler, going after China’s oil refineries is often challenging because most are independent with little reliance on the US financial system.

And while sanctioning the major Chinese banks if they process Iranian funds, as the US Treasury has threatened, would sting, it could also push China to hit back during a sensitive diplomatic period.

Yu Jie, a senior research fellow at the Chatham House think tank’s China, Asia Pacific Programme, said Trump’s threat to target Iran’s economic allies “won’t alter China’s involvement and the existing trading relationship with Iran”.

“Trump intends to stabilise the ties with China, so as Beijing aims to have temporary truce with Washington,” Yu told Al Jazeera.

Musgrave said any “aggressive” secondary sanctions the US applies on Iran would be hugely significant, but that Trump likely would not want to jeopardise the US-China economic relationship given that the two countries are “in kind of an economic Cold War at the moment”.

China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian has responded to Trump’s economic pressure campaign by saying more sanctions would “not help to solve the issue”.

“China calls on relevant parties to take responsible measures and solve the issues through diplomatic and political means,” said Lin.

The US has tried to keep tensions with China at bay ahead of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s planned visit to Washington next month.

During that and two other potential meetups between the leaders later this year, “prolonged conflict in the Gulf is one of the items both sides will discuss,” said Yu, “but it won’t be the most important item”.

Russia’s parallel ties

Russia presents a different challenge for Washington.

While Russia is a smaller trade partner for Iran than China, Moscow and Tehran have spent years building key commercial and military ties that circumvent the West.

In January 2025, the two heavily sanctioned states signed a 20-year partnership treaty, helping boost their trade volume to $4.8bn in the first 11 months of 2025, according to Russian Energy Minister Sergey Tsivilev.

On top of sanctioned oil, Russia and Iran have also reportedly exchanged weapons and military equipment via the Caspian Sea.

On Monday, NBC News cited a European government document as saying that Russia had sent “drone components, ammunition and TNT” to Iran by sea.

The US has already imposed sweeping economic sanctions against Russia.

‘Economic terrorism’

Iran’s foreign minister on Wednesday slammed Trump’s economic campaign against the country, saying it was a continuation of Washington’s “failed policies” and will lead to “further defeat”.

“US economic terrorism threatens global economy and sovereignty worldwide,” Abbas Araghchi wrote in a post on X.

As a member of the BRICS organisation that also includes Russia, China, India, Brazil and other global powers, Iran has sought to use its weight there to seek new financial avenues.

Last week, Iran’s Central Bank governor Abdolnaser Hemmati said Iran planned to join the BRICS New Development Bank (NBD), which would open more doors to financing outside Western markets.

He also said Iran believes BRICS states can transact in their own currencies, and that Tehran is eyeing bilateral and trilateral monetary cooperation with ⁠fellow BRICS members.

The NBD has yet to comment on Iran’s potential membership, which would require an accession process.

Ali Akbar Dareini, an analyst at the Center for Strategic Studies in Tehran, said Iran would find a way to press on despite the “suffocating” US sanctions.

“Trump is stuck in a war he can’t win and he can’t get out of,” Dareini told Al Jazeera.