Russian advance collapses in Ukraine as anxiety rises in Moscow 

Russia’s armed forces are aiming to capture the remaining 20 percent of Ukraine’s partially occupied eastern Donetsk region by the end of the year, having – according to Kyiv – failed to meet 14 previous deadlines.

At Russia’s current rate of advance, President Vladimir Putin’s forces will need 5,150 days, or 14 years, to complete the task – in addition to the 12 years Russian-aligned forces have already been fighting to seize Donetsk from Kyiv’s control.

The Institute for the Study of War says that’s because Russian territorial gains have collapsed this year even as casualties have risen, according to the Washington-based think tank, which uses geolocated, open-source information to estimate territorial control.

Russian forces seized 2,190 square kilometres (845 square miles) of Ukraine in the first six months of 2025, compared with 622 sq km (240 sq miles) so far this year, the ISW said.

That translates to a rate of advance of 1.03 sq km (0.39 sq miles) a day this year versus 16.6 sq km (6.4 sq miles) a day in the first six months of 2025.

Those figures worsen dramatically if Russian infiltrations, which do not amount to firm control of territory, are removed from the equation and Ukrainian counter-advances are included.

In that case, Russia’s net gain in the first half of 2026 is just 97 sq km (37 sq miles), according to ISW figures.

“If Putin wants to send another million of his soldiers to keep fighting against this wall, then these million Russians, who have not yet been mobilised into the Russian army and are queuing for gasoline, should think about what awaits them next,” said Ukraine’s president.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy was referring to the 1.4 million Russian casualties since the war began, estimated by the Center for Strategic International Studies on July 1 .

Ukraine’s military estimated that Russia suffered another 39,490 casualties in June alone, far outstripping its estimated recruitment capacity this year of 24,000-30,000 a month.

That means Russia’s casualties have risen to catastrophic levels of 1,298 per square kilometre taken in June, compared to 68 casualties per sq km in June 2025, said the ISW.

Why is the tide turning?

Zelenskyy has attributed Ukraine’s success this year to “a series of decisions” made last year to increase drone production and develop domestic long-range missiles.

Ukraine has used those resources to disrupt supplies of fuel and ammunition to Russian frontlines – a strategy its Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov called “Logistical Lockdown”.

On June 25 , Zelenskyy announced a 40-day campaign of mid and long-range strikes “against the aggressor state aimed at compelling it to end the war”.

Mid-range strikes have targeted Russian logistics, including warehouses, resupply convoys and bridges.

Those attacks increased from 210 in May to 303 in June, assessed the ISW.

Over a period of just two days, July 1-2 , Ukraine destroyed 12 electricity substations in southern Crimea, as part of its ongoing campaign to make the peninsula unusable for military operations.

The commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces, Robert ‘Magyar’ Brovdi, said his forces struck a Russian target on or behind the frontlines every 52 seconds in June.

“50,147 military targets were destroyed/damaged,” he wrote on his Telegram messaging channel.

Zelenskyy said those short and mid-range capabilities will increase further this month as battalions “will receive additional resources”, he said.

Russia suing for peace – on its terms

Almost a year ago, during Putin’s meeting with US President Donald Trump in Alaska, they reportedly agreed to force Ukraine to hand over Donetsk.

Zelenskyy flatly refused when presented with the proposal.

In the intervening year, the military situation has changed dramatically, with Russia now on the back foot.

Russian officials appeared to advertise their readiness for another US mediation based on what was discussed in Anchorage.

“US proposals were discussed and accepted by the Russian side in Alaska,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told Kremlin newswire TASS on June 26 .

“We would welcome [US mediation], we remain open to these services and to the process of peaceful settlement itself,” said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on the same day.

At the same time, Russia has signalled its opposition to direct Ukrainian proposals, ostensibly believing it will have a more sympathetic interlocutor in Trump.

In responses to Vesti reporter Pavel Zarubin, Putin revealed he had turned down two separate proposals from Kyiv, one for a ceasefire on long-range strikes and another for a ceasefire in the northern Ukrainian regions of Sumy and Kharkiv, as well as the southern regions of Mykolaiv and Dnipropetrovsk, allowing the war to continue along its main fronts – Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson.

“It’s clear why this proposal is being made,” Putin said. “Because our retaliatory strikes deep into Ukrainian territory are far more powerful, devastating, and – to put it bluntly – destructive, leading to truly serious consequences for the (Kyiv) regime.”

Ukraine’s long-range strikes during the past week succeeded in damaging Russia’s Ufa, Nizhegorodsky, Slavyansk and Yaroslavl oil refineries, the Volga and Vyatka cable-laying ships under construction in the Kerch Strait, the Beloomut, Minyayevo and Dubna satellite communications centres near Moscow, the Titan-Barrikady ammunition manufacturer in Volgograd, the Saky military airfield in Crimea and a research institute manufacturing aircraft and missile parts in the Penza region.

Money problems for Putin and the people

Putin has put a brave face as the military flags and public sentiment sours, saying Russia is “standing firm”

As for the economy, Russia relies on oil exports for a quarter of its budget revenues, according to recent analysis, but market analysts say those oil exports have been decreasing.

From January to May, oil revenues fell by 30 percent compared to the same period last year, said Ukrainian Presidential Commissioner for Sanctions Policy, Vladyslav Vlasyuk.

That’s despite the temporary US waiver of sanctions on Russian oil during the Gulf war that began on February 28 . The waiver expired on June 17 .

Ukraine attributes the fall in exports to its systematic strikes on Russian oil terminals and pumping stations, which have made the loading of tankers dangerous and difficult.

As Ukraine struck Russian refineries, Russia has sought to export more of its crude oil and to import refined petroleum products to keep its economy afloat.

Fuel shortages were reported in most Russian regions in June, with videos of Russians arguing over who gets to refuel their car being posted on the internet.

Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak attempted to reassure Russians on June 26 , saying “we have sufficient fuel on the market” and that demand had been artificially boosted by 20-30 percent due to “quite a lot of hype”.

Novak said the “system’s logistics links are currently being restructured” and “rebalancing the market will take some time”.

Putin, too, attempted to gloss over the supply problems, saying that Russia had reserves of 1.7 million tonnes of gasoline, which he said was “down a mere four percent from the same period last year”.

Russia has banned the export of diesel, heavily used by the armed forces and Putin extended the ban on June 26 .

Industry sources told Reuters that Russia imported 60,000 tonnes of refined petroleum products from India and intended to import 400,000 tonnes a month from various countries.