The sweeping 14-1 defeat of Dr Ralph Gonsalves in St Vincent and the Grenadines has triggered intense debate across the Caribbean about whether a broader political shift is emerging, yet, experts warn that drawing parallels with Barbados or other upcoming elections may be dangerously misleading.
Political scientists Peter Wickham and Devaron Bruce, speaking with the Sunday Sun yesterday, said Dr Godwin Friday’s New Democratic Party’s (NDP) landslide victory – ending Gonsalves’ unprecedented 24-year hold on power – was undeniably a watershed moment. However, they cautioned that the Vincentian outcome is rooted in factors that simply do not exist elsewhere in the region.
Wickham said the impulse to see the St Vincent result as part of an anti-incumbent “wave” should be treated with scepticism.
“There’s a feeling on some people’s part that you have a change election in one, there’s a change election in the other. I tend to distinguish elections one from the other,” he said, recalling that Grenada’s sweeping 2013 change of government did not replicate in Barbados days later.
He argued that the conditions surrounding Gonsalves’ fall – specifically the strength and readiness of the opposition – made St Vincent a poor comparison to Dominica, Antigua or Barbados.
“St Vincent and the Grenadines had a strong opposition that was led ably and held a large number of seats that made a difference. I can’t see that happening in Dominica if an election were called tomorrow because the opposition is a lot weaker. The same could be said for Antigua, and certainly for Barbados.”
He also dismissed the idea that Prime Minister Phillip J Pierre’s government in St Lucia faces a similar fate.
“I think that the result and the outcome in St Lucia will be very different,” he said.
Bruce was equally firm that Barbados is not poised for a Vincentian-style shift.
“If people look at St Vincent closely enough, they would see that Ralph was teetering on electoral loss for the last three cycles. He had a one- to threeseat majority. It really only took a small swing for government to change,” he said.
He stressed that the Democratic Labour Party would require a swing “three times as much” as the NDP achieved to return to Government in Barbados.
“On that basis, the two are not comparable. Barbados needs a much larger swing. That would be a heavy lift in any instance,” Bruce said.
He pointed out that Bridgetown and Kingstown will now have to mend what he characterised as “a very negative way to start a relationship”, referring to tensions between the Barbados Labour Party and the incoming Vincentian government linked to alleged campaign involvement by Barbadian operatives.
“But, it’s one that certainly can be improved and grown,” he added.
Bruce said the wider region should watch closely to see whether Prime Minister Friday maintains Gonsalves’ staunch positions on sovereignty and hemispheric diplomacy – especially on Venezuela, where Gonsalves had been one of CARICOM’s most influential voices.
Both analysts said one of the clearest lessons from the Vincentian outcome is the danger of building a political movement entirely around a single personality.
Bruce described Gonsalves’ long tenure as a cautionary reminder that leadership fatigue eventually reaches even the most loyal voter bases.
“The longer an individual remains in power, the more complacent and arrogant they become, and that behaviour seeps through onto the electorate in a negative way,” he said, advising that political organisations must prioritise succession planning and renewal.
He warned against any Caribbean nation allowing itself to reach a point where one party alone appears capable of governing.
Wickham reiterated that while the St Vincent result will reverberate politically, it does not automatically foreshadow a domino effect.
“As with all comparative analysis, we have to take into account the peculiar features on the table. The playing fields across the region are uneven and the peculiarities matter,” he said.
Bruce added: “This is really a wait-and-see circumstance for the region.” (CLM)
